Back in May, I wrote that the high blance confirming loan upper limit will drop after September. Here I want to share with you the impact in more quantifiable way.
Impact of Lower Loan Limit for GSE-backed Loans
| County | 2011 Limit | HERA Limits (GSE) | $ Difference | % GSE Loans Ineligible |
% Calif. Households Represented |
| Alameda | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 6.30% | 4.30% |
| Contra Costa | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 11.50% | 3.00% |
| Los Angeles | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 2.30% | 25.70% |
| Marin | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 12.20% | 0.80% |
| Merced | $472,500 | $417,000 | $55,500 | 0.00% | 0.60% |
| Monterey | $729,750 | $483,000 | $246,750 | 8.80% | 1.00% |
| Napa | $729,750 | $592,250 | $137,500 | 3.80% | 0.40% |
| Orange | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 6.20% | 7.90% |
| Placer | $580,000 | $474,950 | $105,050 | 4.40% | 1.10% |
| Riverside | $500,000 | $417,000 | $83,000 | 1.70% | 5.50% |
| Sacramento | $580,000 | $474,950 | $105,050 | 1.10% | 4.10% |
| San Bernardino | $500,000 | $417,000 | $83,000 | 0.70% | 4.90% |
| San Diego | $697,500 | $546,250 | $151,250 | 8.20% | 8.60% |
| San Francisco | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 9.90% | 2.70% |
| San Luis Obispo | $687,500 | $561,200 | $126,300 | 6.40% | 0.80% |
| San Mateo | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 10.70% | 2.00% |
| Santa Barbara | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 5.80% | 1.10% |
| Santa Clara | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 7.80% | 4.80% |
| Santa Cruz | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 7.10% | 0.70% |
| Solano | $557,500 | $417,000 | $140,500 | 1.60% | 1.10% |
| Sonoma | $662,500 | $520,950 | $141,550 | 7.90% | 1.50% |
| Ventura | $729,750 | $598,000 | $131,750 | 5.80% | 2.10% |
| Average/Total | 5.90% | 84.90% |
Assumptions:
- Analysis covers all major counties affected by a change in the loan limits, 22 counties covered.
- 22-county analysis covers 85% of the households in California, according to the Dept. of Finance 2011.
- Based on projected level of annual existing, single-family home sales in California for 2012.
- Down payment of 20% for GSE analysis.
- Share ineligible based on the calculated loan amount given down payment assumptions at the current loan limits versus HERA loan limits.
- HERA loan limits from http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=FHA_Loan_Limits_HERA.pdf
*Fresno included in FHA analysis but not GSE because under the GSE loan limits, there would be no change.
Impact of Lower Loan Limit for FHA-backed Loans
| County | 2011 Limit | HERA Limits (FHA) | $ Difference | % FHA Loans Ineligible | % of Calif. Households |
| Represented | |||||
| Alameda | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 11.80% | 4.30% |
| Contra Costa | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 11.00% | 3.00% |
| Fresno | $381,250 | $281,750 | $99,500 | 6.50% | 2.30% |
| Los Angeles | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 5.40% | 25.70% |
| Marin | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 13.20% | 0.80% |
| Merced | $472,500 | $271,050 | $201,450 | 3.20% | 0.60% |
| Monterey | $729,750 | $483,000 | $246,750 | 9.70% | 1.00% |
| Napa | $729,750 | $592,250 | $137,500 | 7.80% | 0.40% |
| Orange | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 13.30% | 7.90% |
| Placer | $580,000 | $474,950 | $105,050 | 4.20% | 1.10% |
| Riverside | $500,000 | $335,350 | $164,650 | 11.50% | 5.50% |
| Sacramento | $580,000 | $474,950 | $105,050 | 1.10% | 4.10% |
| San Bernardino | $500,000 | $335,350 | $164,650 | 5.30% | 4.90% |
| San Diego | $697,500 | $546,250 | $151,250 | 11.90% | 8.60% |
| San Francisco | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 14.40% | 2.70% |
| San Luis Obispo | $687,500 | $561,200 | $126,300 | 10.30% | 0.80% |
| San Mateo | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 12.70% | 2.00% |
| Santa Barbara | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 7.40% | 1.10% |
| Santa Clara | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 12.20% | 4.80% |
| Santa Cruz | $729,750 | $625,500 | $104,250 | 13.90% | 0.70% |
| Solano | $557,500 | $400,200 | $157,300 | 4.80% | 1.10% |
| Sonoma | $662,500 | $520,950 | $141,550 | 9.30% | 1.50% |
| Ventura | $729,750 | $598,000 | $131,750 | 12.70% | 2.10% |
| Average/Total | 9.30% | 87.20% |
Assumptions:
- Analysis covers all major counties affected by a change in the loan limits, 23 counties covered.
- 23-county analysis covers 87% of the households in California, according to the Dept. of Finance 2011.
- Based on projected level of annual existing, single-family home sales in California for 2012.
- Down payment of 3.5% for FHA analysis.
- Share ineligible based on the calculated loan amount given down payment assumptions at the current loan limits versus HERA loan limits.
- HERA loan limits from http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=FHA_Loan_Limits_HERA.pdf
*Fresno included in FHA analysis but not GSE because under the GSE loan limits, there would be no change.
