“The Housing Bust is Over and More Homeowners Regain Equity

The Wall Street Journal has proclaimed, “The housing bust is over.”

While many of us might point to various statistics that have hinted at this story over the last few months already, this feels like a bigger deal because of where it’s coming from – one of the most respected business presses. The Journal cites the following stats to make the case: Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006. Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May than in May 2011. A WSJ survey of forecasters found that 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don’t. The Journal states: “From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses.”

The report last week from CoreLogic that rising home prices helped more than 700,000 homeowners regain equity in their homes during the first quarter. The number of U.S. homeowners with negative equity declined 6% in the first quarter, leaving 23.7% of all homes with mortgages underwater (down from 25.2% in the fourth quarter).

Underwater homeowners can’t sell like other homeowners can. Therefore, unless they’re looking for a short sale or have to sell due to other circumstances, they’re not putting their houses on the market. This actually has created constrained inventory in some markets where demand is really healthy – leaving buyers with few options and competitive bidding situations.

This is solid, positive news based on data.

Santa Clara County Distressed Home Sale Remain Low

Percentage of the distressed home sale in Santa Clara county of the total home sale in May 2012 remain low, according to the latest data released by California Realtor Assocication. Of th total home sales in May, only 28% is distressed home sale and the majority (72%) is the regular sale (a.k.a equity sale).

This is about the same level as those in April and 6% lower than same time last year, signaling a return of more non-investors to the housing market.  Among all counties in California, Santa Clara county, San Mateo county, Marin county and San Diego county are the four couties that have the lowest distressed home sale percentage.

Overall, share of REO (a.k.a bank-owned, foreclosure) sale hit lowest level in four years. See below the chart for the trend.

REO sale hit lowest in 4 years in California as of May 2012

California Pending Home Sale Post Double Digit Gains

California Realtor Association just released the pending home sale data for May.  Pending home sales are good indicator for future home sale activity as these are houses having purchase contract but have not closed escrow yet. It provides information on the future direction of the market.

Pending home sales in California posted double-digit gains from the previous year for the fourth straight month. May marked the thirteenth straight month that pending sales were higher than the previous year.

C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold said that the strong results in pending sales – double-digit year-over-year gains in the last nine out of 10 months – suggest solid housing market performance for the state in the upcoming months.

See below for the year-to-year percent change of pending sales vs closed sales in California.

California Pending Sales vs Closed Sales Trend as of May 2012

California Pending Sales vs Closed Sales Trend

All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The design of this website & its contents are protected by copyright. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.